Monday, March 06, 2006

Electricty, Hydro and NZ

In case you're not aware, there's a fair bit of free information available about NZ's electricity market available at www.comitfree.co.nz
Round ups of prices and in-browser displays of data etc
My favorite is the hydro chart showing where we currently stand compared to a few choice years in the past (records began in 20's ish).

Anyone looking at that chart should be seriously concerned about keeping their house warm this winter if they use electricity.
Also, a note for the non-statistical among us, its not valid to say "we have a 1 in 79 chance of below average inflows" that's a blunt statement concerning a completely random event and only applies to the future. What you want to hear is "based on past data, whenever the hydro situation has been at a similar level for this time of year, we have a ?? % chance of reaching the average".
This statement takes into account that you have had low inflows thus far and thus the chances of having above average inflows for a significant period of time are x%. This is what counts. For my money, I'm guessing you have about 5-10% chance of getting back to average or above average hydro levels from this far down, we're tracking the big drought of 1992 for crying out loud....
It's like watching a car crash in slow motion.... every other year...

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